We have reached rock bottom. At least, I hope we have. I’ve been shut out the last two weeks, mainly because home underdogs are getting absolutely destroyed – bad news for yours truly.
Still, I have to believe the worm has turned. The Los Angeles Rams got the week started on the right note (with a teeny bit of help from the zebras).
Here are three puppies I have my eye on this week:
Browns +8 vs. Ravens
I’m going back to the well with the Cleveland Browns, largely because DeShaun Watson is no longer under center. Jameis Winston will give the offense the desperate shot in the arm it needs and they get a Baltimore Ravens defense lacking its typical bite.
The Ravens are on a short week and heading on the road to face a divisional rival to resume a series that has been close lately, with the teams splitting virtually every year. Baltimore’s strong run defense was not great last week, and they’ll get Nick Chubb, who knocked off the rust last week. That unit misses last year’s DC, Mike McDonald.
This line opened in double digits and has been falling like a stone as the money has come in on the Browns. Look for Cleveland and Winston to keep it within a score.
Patriots +7 vs. Jets
I’m backing another divisional home dog here, even though they’ve been getting destroyed all season. At some point, it will turn the other way.
I vacillated between the Pats and Las Vegas Raiders here. Ultimately, I landed on the thought that the New York Jets shouldn’t be favored by a TD over anybody, and I’m sick and tired of watching Patrick Mahomes make me look stupid.
I don’t love the fact that the Patriots are still getting their legs under them after the trip to London, but the teams have performed pretty well in that spot lately. While everyone loves to point the finger at Aaron Rodgers, the Jets’ defense has massively underperformed.
It faces an offense that knows them well, one that can run with Rhamondre Stevenson and is being guided by a rookie quarterback who can make plays with his arm and legs.
These teams are very different from the ones that met in the opener. I think the Pats are much more competitive this time around.
Cowboys +4 ½ at 49ers
The last time we saw the Dallas Cowboys, they got their lunch handed to them by the Detroit Lions. They’ve had two weeks to stew about that embarrassment; they’re healthier and tend to play well in this spot.
Mike McCarthy is 14-6-1 ATS on extended rest, and he faces a 49ers team in disarray. All of its top offensive weapons are either out or nursing injuries that will limit them if they play. Dallas is still likely missing a few key defensive pieces, like Micah Parsons, but I think they will rise up and respond in a prime-time matchup against the 49ers, likely keeping it with a field goal.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 7-14
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