Let’s just all agree that when we have an NFL weekend where home underdogs go 0-9, it’s not going to be a good week for yours truly. My third pick, the Commanders, missed covering by half a point. It’s time to turn things around in lucky Week 7.
Here are my three favorite puppies:
Browns +6 ½ vs. Bengals
You’re already doubting me, aren’t you? What kind of psychopath would ever ride with the hapless Browns, who seem afraid to bench Deshaun Watson? I guess I am because the line seems to be a couple of points too high. Everyone figures the Bengals will turn things around sooner or later, but the Browns showed some mettle in Philly last week.
Joe Burrow just can’t beat this team for some reason. He’s 1-5 against them and has yet to win in Cleveland. The Browns defense, while not as strong as last year, can still get after him, as they have in the past. Their putrid offense will finally get back running back Nick Chubb in some capacity. His presence alone should lift that unit against a Bengals defense that is mediocre at best.
Underdogs of 5 ½ or more are 20-8-1 ATS this season, and this nasty divisional rivalry figures to be a tight one. Feels like a 23-20 Bengals kind of win to me.
Patriots +6 vs. Jaguars
Those of you who look at the world through a cynical lens might charge me with including this game for no other reason than to give myself a reason to watch this ugly matchup from London. And I would answer by saying, ‘OK, maybe just a little.’
The truth is, in no world should the Jaguars be favored by this many points over anyone. The counterargument is that this is the game where the Jags rally around their beleaguered coach and steamroll the Pats with their much more talented offense.
Add in that they’ve been enjoying tea and crumpets in London for two weeks while this young Patriots group is making its first voyage across the pond, with a rookie QB making just his second start.
But Drake Maye injected some serious life into the offense last week, even if the Texans overwhelmed his team. Jacksonville’s D is far more forgiving and Maye should get RB Rhamondre Stevenson back, which would help him even more. Maybe he and the Pats get another coach fired on the flight back to the States.
Buccaneers +3 ½ vs. Ravens
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Lamar Jackson beating NFC teams. He’s a ridiculous 21-1 in his career. But the Bucs just need to hang within a field goal here, and I really like their chances.
Baker Mayfield is dealing right now, and Baltimore’s pass defense is a real liability. It looks like Mike Evans will be good to go after tweaking his knee last Sunday. But even without him, I think the Bucs can keep up on the scoreboard against the high-flying Ravens. Tampa Bay is getting healthier on defense and, in my mind, is still being undervalued.
This is Tampa’s first home game since the devastating hurricane, and I can see the crowd being a real factor in a primetime affair that could change the narrative around their team if they can spring the home upset. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them win, but I would be shocked to see them lose by more than one score.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 7-11
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