Learned a valuable lesson last week. Stick with the first three teams you like. I subbed out the Arizona Cardinals for the Los Angeles Rams at the last minute, and it bit me. Of course, had the Rams converted that late two-point conversion, they would have covered. But that’s the way the ball bounces. It was an ugly week.
For this week’s slate, I’m rolling with a larger breed of dogs. My three picks are all catching six or more, which has been very profitable this season. Underdogs of six or more are an amazing 16-2-1 ATS and 11-8 straight up through five weeks.
Patriots +6 ½ vs. Texans
Yes, I know the New England Patriots looked terrible last week. I’m also aware they’re throwing rookie Drake Maye to the wolves. His first career start is behind a lousy, banged-up offensive line, and he has to deal with Danielle Hunter and an aggressive pass rush.
But maybe his mobility is just what the doctor ordered. We know the Texans don’t have any tape to study. On top of that, Houston and C.J. Stroud are terrible road favorites, just 2-7 when favored by a field goal or more. With Nico Collins out, the offense loses maybe the best receiver in the league this year. The offense fell off a cliff when he went out last week, and New England’s defense is above average. They may get Joe Mixon back, but the Patriots are above average against the run.
I don’t know if Maye is ready to lead the Pats to an upset win, but I think he’ll put a little jolt into the offense and keep this one close against a Texans team that still hasn’t put together 60 solid minutes all season.
Commanders +6 ½ at Ravens
I’ll roll with another big dog here because this line seems a couple of points too high. The surprising Washington Commanders will likely tumble back to earth at some point, but I don’t think it happens this week. Jayden Daniels and his high-flying offense are brimming with confidence. He should be able to throw on a suspect Ravens pass D.
I don’t doubt that Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will have big days, but Washington’s defense is getting better every week as they get used to Joe Whitt and HC Dan Quinn’s system. The Ravens are coming off an overtime win in a game they would have lost if not for a blown hold on a potential game-winning Cincinnati Bengals field goal, and they are everyone’s favorite AFC team not named the Kansas City Chiefs. That road win has inflated this line: It feels like a 27-23 game.
Panthers +6 vs. Falcons
I’m making a vow here. If I lose this one, I’m not rolling with the Carolina Panthers again this season. I’m on an island here, as no one is backing Carolina this week after that beatdown in Chicago; this is another spread that, to me, is over-inflated.
The Atlanta Falcons have had some extra rest and are coming off that unlikely come-from-behind overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is the time to fade Kirk Cousins, who historically is terrible ATS as a road division favorite, coming off a win.
The Falcons are lousy against the run, and Carolina is a good run-blocking offense. Chuba Hubbard had back-to-back 100-yard games before the Chicago Bears ran them over. If I were hanging out somewhere where sports betting is legal, I’d sprinkle a few bucks on the Panthers money line here.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 7-8
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