Well now, that’s more like it. That 0-3 opening week seems like something out of a bad dream. We’re 5-1 since, thanks to several big dogs strutting their stuff, most winning outright. It’s on to Week 4, and this slate is a bit tricky, with half of the games not meeting the three-point threshold to qualify.
Not to worry: I found three feisty puppies.
Seahawks +3 ½ at Detroit
Seattle tripped me up last week, and I still don’t believe they’re among the NFC elite, but they always seem to have the Lions’ number. They’ve won the last five in the series, including all three in ’22 and ’23 – the last two in Detroit, with both teams lighting up the scoreboard.
New Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald brought his Baltimore Ravens scheme to Seattle, and it didn’t take long for the players to embrace it. They get a Lions team that has not yet found its groove through the air, with Jared Goff struggling and now perhaps without elite tight end Sam LaPorta. The Lions probably escape with a win here, but I’ll take the points all day.
Broncos +7 ½ at N.Y. Jets
Denver orchestrated the most impressive win of Week 3 and gained a ton of confidence in the process. I think they can stay within shouting distance of Aaron Rodgers and Co. in what figures to be a low-scoring game. Both teams will try to pound the ball and chew up the clock. After last week’s performance, Bo Nix will feel much more at ease in another tough road environment.
I think Denver’s defense is equipped to prevent any big plays. If Patrick Surtain can shut down Garrett Wilson like he has the three No. 1s he’s already faced (DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans), this game has all the makings of a 17-13 kind of feel. The Jets have had some extra time after playing three games in 11 days. I say they come out a little sleepy and maybe thinking about next week’s trip overseas.
Jaguars +6 ½ at Houston
I saved this one for last; I figured some of you might stop reading because you hate this pick. I understand, I watched them in Buffalo too, but I think this is a perfect buy-low spot for the Jags. Everyone is down on them: Their QB looks lost, and Doug Pederson may soon be a dead coach walking.
These divisional games are funky, though. Underdogs are hitting at a 60% rate in division games, and I think the Texans are getting too much respect here. They have not looked good all season: Barely beating the Colts, letting the Bears stick around, and then getting dusted by the Vikings.
Their offense is banged up, with Joe Mixon and Tank Dell unlikely to play. They’ll face Jacksonville’s man defense, which isn’t great, but while C.J. Stroud is elite against zone coverage, he’s one of the lowest-rated QBs vs. man coverage. Plus, he’s just 3-8 ATS as a favorite.
I would love to be getting seven here, but I see Jacksonville playing like their season (and a lot of jobs) depends on it, and they’ll play hard for 60 minutes. A backdoor cover feels right.
Last week: 2-1
Season: 5-4
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
