OK, that’s more like it. We rebounded nicely from a disastrous Week 1, with a scintillating 3-0 record last week. It was a profitable slate for dogs across the board, notably those getting five or more points. Here’s hoping that trend continues:
Panthers +5 at Las Vegas
OK, here’s the deal: If the Carolina Panthers don’t cover in this one, I promise to ignore them for the rest of the season. I probably should have learned my lesson after backing them in Week 1, but there is too much to like about them this week despite their historically bad start to the season.
It begins with addition by subtraction. Replacing Bryce Young with Andy Dalton gives the offense reason to believe; the oddsmakers agree, as this line moved from seven to five after the quarterback change. Teams typically respond well in their first game with a new signal caller, and they get a Las Vegas Raiders team that has spent the week patting itself on the back for its unlikely come-from-behind win in Baltimore.
This feels like a spot where the Raiders lose some of their focus against an opponent they believe they can beat in their sleep. I say the Panthers are competitive in this one and keep it close ’til the very end.
Dolphins +4 ½ at Seattle
Here’s another backup QB in a favorable spot, even if it is in a tough place to play. I don’t believe there’s a huge dropoff from Tua to Skylar Thompson, who will rely heavily on his running game to move the chains.
The 2-0 Seattle Seahawks are getting all kinds of love, especially new coach Mike Macdonald’s defense. But they’ve beaten two of the worst teams in the league, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, and it took them overtime to get past New England last week. They’re one-dimensional offensively, with running back Kenneth Walker still sidelined, and the Miami Dolphins can force Geno Smith into some mistakes.
Seattle wins, but it will be close.
Giants +6 ½ at Cleveland
Let’s start with the trends. So far this season, teams favored by six or more points are 0-8 against the spread and only 4-4 straight up. In the last six seasons, teams that start 0-2 and are dogs in Week 3 cover at a 62% clip.
The Cleveland Browns shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anyone. They got blown out in Week 1 and were fortunate to get a win in Jacksonville last week. It will be a windy day in Cleveland, and oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game, which is helpful when catching nearly a touchdown. Daniel Jones might be terrible, but he’s been profitable as a road underdog throughout his career.
They’re coming off a game where they had no kicker and lost despite scoring three touchdowns and giving up seven field goals. They signed Greg Joseph to handle the kicking duties while Graham Gano heals so that problem should be handled. Jones and Malik Nabers heated up last week, and I think they can hit on a couple of big plays to keep this close in a low-scoring game.
Last week: 3-0
Season: 3-3
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