We officially hit the back half of the season with high hopes that reality will set in and underdogs will begin to cover. It’s been a historically great season for favorites — the best ever — making my job extremely tough. Even road favorites have covered at the highest rate ever. Okay, enough with the excuses.
We’ll begin the turnaround this week because I’ve found three feisty puppies who are sure to be barking on Sunday.
Colts +4 vs. Bills
Indy let me down last week, but I don’t hold grudges. I like this spot for the Colts, who should have much more success moving the ball against the Bills’ defense. I expect a bounce-back performance from Joe Flacco, and he’ll need it because the Bills will score points.
The Colts are a covering machine at home, 4-0 so far this season, and they just might catch Buffalo peeking ahead to next week’s monster home game with the Chiefs. The bye follows that game, so beware of the letdown spot here against a team that knows its postseason hopes are on the line.
Saints +3 ½ vs. Falcons
I know, it’s gross. You’re asking me how I can back a team that just lost to the Panthers. They’re at their lowest possible value right now, and I always take an extra look at a team playing its first game after firing its head coach. In the Saints, I get a team that can run the ball down Atlanta’s throats and can get the best of Derek Carr, who wilts under pressure, but the Falcons can’t rush the passer.
There are some issues on the other side of the ball, with star CB Marshon Lattimore off to Washington. Still, I expect this team to rise up after that embarrassing loss and compete against a divisional rival who only beat them by two points in Atlanta. I think New Orleans wins outright.
Steelers +3 at Commanders
At some point, Washington has to come down to earth just a bit, right? I love this team as much as anyone and predicted they’d be a playoff team, but Jayden Daniels hasn’t faced a defense like this.
On top of that, Mike Tomlin is the most profitable head coach in the league ATS as an underdog. This feels like the right time to fade the Commanders, who have a mammoth game four days later against the Eagles. Not saying they’ll look past Pittsburgh, but they know next Thursday’s game carries more weight.
Their newly minted corner Lattimore won’t suit up, but it looks like new Steelers WR Mike Williams will, which might give George Pickens a little more room to operate. This one may land on the number, but I like Pittsburgh to spring the small upset.
Last Week 1-2
Season 10-17
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