It’s been an up-and-down season for me in NFL betting. The good weeks have been REALLY good and the bad weeks have been REALLY bad. But, hey, that’s why the call it gambling!
Week 15 NFL Betting Picks (2-3)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 40.5 ❌
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans UNDER 46.5 ❌
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over Cleveland Browns ✅
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals OVER 46 points ✅
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles ❌
Of course, as soon as I bet the UNDER on the Jets, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams decided to have 2021 flashbacks. And betting the UNDER in a Bengals game was just a bad idea.
We were actually lucky to hit the OVER in the Pats/Cards game thanks to some late scores, so it was a rough week on the totals front. The Chiefs dominated the Browns, as predicted, but we whiffed badly on the Steelers. Not a good week, probably should have been worse than 2-3.
SEASON REPORT CARD (33-32, 51%)
SPREAD BETS (20-20, 50%)
OVER/UNDER BETS (13-12, 52%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 16 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) over Baltimore Ravens
Despite the dud last week, we’re going back to the well with the Steelers. Everything I wrote last week is still (mostly) true. Mike Tomlin generally dominates against-the-spread as an underdog, and he has always had great gameplans to defend Lamar Jackson.
In fact, it’s a bit strange that the Steelers are bigger underdogs this week at Baltimore than they were last week at Philadelphia. The Steelers have covered four-straight against the Ravens and six of the past seven meetings.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has always performed well as an underdog, and I can’t see him failing to cover two straight games as a dog.
(Eric Hartline-Imagn Images)
To go even deeper, Baltimore hasn’t covered as a favorite against the Steelers since 2014. Yes, it’s been over a decade. And the Steelers won seven of the nine games outright.
I believe Baltimore is a better team than Pittsburgh, but this should be a typical AFC North rivalry game that comes down to the wire. I’ll take the 6 points.
New York Giants (+8.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Yes, the Giants are bad and in the midst of a lost season. But I can’t justify not betting on a team getting 9.5 points against a rookie QB making his first NFL start. That’s what the Falcons have now that they’ve benched Kirk Cousins in favor of Michael Penix.
I considered the UNDER here, since both teams have bad quarterbacks, but I’m worried about Penix making a big mistake that leads to easy points. Frankly, I’m worried about the same thing with Drew Lock.
Still, the better play is to back the Giants. People think that Penix is going to do more with this team than Cousins, but I don’t expect that right away. I’m not sure the Falcons even expect that; I think they’re just playing it safe to make sure Cousins doesn’t get hurt, so they don’t owe him any additional money.
New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll might be coaching for his job, so I expect his team to keep it close against a rookie QB making his first NFL start.
(Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
There’s a reason they stuck with Cousins for so long, and that makes me think the coaching staff still thinks he gives them a better chance to win. Atlanta has only beaten one team this season by at least 10 points and that was the Andy Dalton-led Panthers.
I really just don’t see how Atlanta scores enough points to win by at least 10, so I’m taking the heavy underdog.
Tennessee Titans (+4) over Indianapolis Colts
This might seem crazy, but I don’t think the Colts are actually better than the Titans. If they are, it isn’t by much. And the switch from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph definitely improves Tennessee’s offense.
While Levis certainly has more arm talent, Rudolph doesn’t make as many mistakes as Levis does. Frankly, I’m not sure any NFL quarterback makes as many terrible mistakes as Will Levis.
Weirdly, I think the Titans are motivated to win this football game. Sure, the Colts still have an outside shot at the playoffs and Tennessee is eliminated, but head coach Brian Callahan went on an epic rant on Wednesday about his team’s “toughness.”
This feels like one of those games where the team rallies around the veteran QB, and they put it all out on the field. I believe Tennessee will beat Indy, but I’ll happily take the points.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders UNDER 46
Divisional games in December, especially those between playoff teams, tend to be played much tighter than other games. Plus, it’s going to be cold in Washington, D.C. on Sunday.
People think of both of these offenses as high-flying, but Washington has had trouble scoring at times. They’re going to struggle to score against Philadelphia.
The Eagles boast an incredible running attack and I expect them to lean heavily on that throughout this contest. The goal is to try and wear down the Commanders, which means a moving clock. Additionally, neither of these teams tends to make the huge turnover mistakes that lead to easy points.
Expect a similar game between the Commanders and Eagles as the one we saw a few weeks ago.
(Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)
When these two teams met a few weeks ago, the final score was 26-18. But even that is a bit misleading. The Commanders entered the fourth quarter with a 10-6 lead before the Eagles scored three touchdowns in the final frame, two of them coming in the last five minutes.
I see a similar game this time around, where it’s tight and low-scoring into the fourth quarter. Take the UNDER.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) over Minnesota Vikings
What can I say? I love the underdogs this week. This is more of a fade of Minnesota than it is a backing of Seattle, but I like the Seahawks to win this game.
This is a classic look-ahead spot for the Vikings, who have to play the Green Bay Packers next week before a season finale against the Detroit Lions. And Minnesota is just better at home than they are on the road.
While the Vikings have already clinched a playoff spot, the Seahawks are fighting for their spot. They’re coming off an embarrassing loss against Green Bay, and I have a feeling they’re going to come out hot against the Vikings.
No surprise, it’s supposed to rain in Seattle on Sunday, and I think that benefits the Seahawks since I expect Sam Darnold to struggle a bit in the elements. Geno Smith is used to playing in Seattle by now. Take the points with the home dog.
San Francisco 49ers (-105) over Miami Dolphins
I cannot wrap my head around why the Miami Dolphins are favored to beat San Francisco in Week 16. Like, I tried. I cannot figure out. The 49ers are a better team, with a better coach.
While both teams are basically eliminated from playoff contention (both are mathematically alive, but it’s grim), the 49ers have more to play for in this one. They could theoretically still win the NFC West and get a home playoff game, while Miami, at best, would need help to sneak into the final AFC Wild Card spot.
Kyle Shanahan should be able to coach circles around his former assistant, Mike McDaniel.
(Imagn Images)
The 49ers have been very unlucky this season, both with injuries and with games just not falling their way. The Dolphins beat the Rams this year, which is arguably their only quality win. The others have come against the Patriots (twice), the Jaguars, the Jets and the Raiders.
San Francisco has played a much tougher schedule, and they boast a quality road win against a very good Tampa Bay team and another strong win at Seattle. Plus, all of their losses have come against teams that are currently .500 or better. Miami does not have a winning record, and I don’t expect the 49ers’ pattern to change.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) over Dallas Cowboys
You know how they say if a line looks too good to be true, you should run away as fast as you can? Well, I’m going to completely ignore that here.
The Buccaneers are the one favorite that I LOVE this week, and I truly don’t understand why this line isn’t higher. Again, too good to be true. But Tampa Bay is a legitimately good team and Dallas is legitimately bad.
The Bucs are better on both sides of the ball, and they have a better head coach, a better quarterback and a better running game.
What else do you need to know?
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