I feel like a corner has finally been turned, with back-to-back winning weeks. This week features a lot of big, old, ugly dogs. Although I’m extremely tempted, I will not include the Panthers since I swore off them after they repeatedly burned me early in the season.
However, I do like them this week – consider that a free bonus pick that won’t count against my record.
Here are the three puppies I like in Week 12.
Colts +7½ vs. Lions
What can I say? I just can’t quit the Colts. They finally rewarded my loyalty last week, and I’m willing to back them again, even against a Lions team that basically covers every week.
The Lions are coming off a shellacking of the Jaguars and may come into this one a little sleepy, with a big divisional Thanksgiving game looming. Teams off a blowout win who are then big favorites on the road cover less than 40% of the time.
Anthony Richardson seemed to benefit from his short-term benching with a strong performance and comeback win on the road against the Jets. The running attack with him and Jonathan Taylor should be productive against the Lions.
Finally, Jared Goff is a significantly better QB against man coverage than zone, and nobody plays more zone than the Colts. I say they keep it within a touchdown.
Bears +3½ vs. Vikings
I’m rolling with another home dog here. Although the Vikings have won the last four against Chicago, I think this is a tough spot for them. It’s their third straight road game, traditionally a challenging spot for any team.
The Bears showed some fight last week and probably should have come away with a win if not for some head-scratching coaching decisions. Brian Flores’ defense will test the offense, but I think they’ll use the same formula as last week: Rely on Caleb Williams’ legs and make sure he gets rid of the ball quickly to offset the relentless blitzing.
Chicago’s talented secondary matches up well with Minnesota’s playmakers. I don’t trust Sam Darnold in lousy weather conditions on the road, playing a team desperate to snap a four-game losing streak. I think the Bears win outright.
Rams +3 vs. Eagles
The Eagles feel a little overvalued right now. To me, this game should be a pick ‘em, or maybe Eagles -1. It’s a great matchup with the Rams’ healthy and talented playmakers against Philadelphia’s improving young secondary.
I trust Matthew Stafford and company to have a few tricks up their sleeves. Philly hasn’t seen an offense this talented in quite a while. Meanwhile, the Rams’ young defense is getting better every week, and I’m not sure Jalen Hurts is anywhere close to 100% right now.
I’ll take the more desperate team, especially one with an offense that can slow the hype train on the Philly D.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 14-19
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