We’re fresh off a winning week, but have a ways to go to get above the Mendoza line. Last week was the first winning week for underdogs, and would have had a perfect week, if only the Colts could have sustained their strong start.
I like my three-pack this week as I inch closer to respectability.
Colts +4 at Jets
This is the third straight week I’m rolling with the Colts, and they’ve yet to pay me off. I’ll jump off the train if they let me down again, but I give them a great chance to win this game outright.
I mean, should the Jets be favored by four points against anybody these days? They’re terrible on both sides of the ball right now. The Colts turn back to Anthony Richardson, which adds an element of the unknown, but he can’t be worse than Flacco was last week. At the very least, he can run the ball, and that causes the defense to pay less attention to Jonathan Taylor. The Jets have been a sieve against the run this season.
The Colts are still in the thick of the AFC wildcard race and have a lot to play for. The Jets are pointing fingers and look lost and disinterested. I’ll happily take the points.
Titans +5 ½ vs. Vikings
It’s easy to fade the Vikings after their flat performance in Jacksonville last week. But this is less about that and more about a Titans team that is still playing hard and has a very talented defense, including CB L’Jarius Sneed, who will be bracketing Justin Jefferson all afternoon. If Sam Darnold continues to try to force the ball to him, Sneed will make him pay.
Will Levis played reasonably well on the road last week against a pretty good Chargers team. With a healthy Tony Pollard, he shouldn’t face a lot of bad down and distance situations, which gets him in trouble. This feels like a field goal game either way.
Steelers +3 ½ vs. Ravens
This is my favorite play of the week. It’s not that I think the Steelers are on the same level as the Ravens. I don’t. But in this series, the underdog is king. Check this out: Over the last 20 years, the dog is hitting at a 74% clip. Since 2015, dogs are 15-2-1. And when the line is three or higher, the dog is 22-4-3 over the last 20 years.
Both teams are missing key defenders: Alex Highsmith for the Steelers and Kyle Hamilton for the Ravens. That secondary will miss him dearly against Russell Wilson, who will feel free to take a bunch of deep shots with George Pickens and Mike Williams. Baltimore gives up explosive pass plays in bunches.
Lamar Jackson always struggles against this defense; he’s 1-3 in his career. Pittsburgh made things difficult for Jayden Daniels last week — not that he’s on Lamar’s level, but he plays a similar style.
The Terrible Towels will be flying, and the Steelers’ defense will be flexing. The Ravens may pull it out at the end, but it’s gonna be a close one.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 12-18
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