Nice to get back to our winning ways last week. The Cowboys provided a few moments of hope for a 3-0 week before reverting to their usual selves in the second half in San Francisco.
On to Week 9, where a couple of big dogs look awfully good.
Broncos +9½ at Ravens
There’s no question Baltimore will be out for blood this week after gift-wrapping a huge upset win for Cleveland last week. But don’t expect the Broncos to lie down. They’ve won their last three road games and match up well against a Ravens team that tends to play up and down to its competition.
Lamar Jackson didn’t practice until Friday, dealing with back and knee issues. He’ll play Sunday, but the team will be mindful that they host a big divisional game Thursday night against the Bengals before heading to Pittsburgh. I expect a more conservative offensive game plan that leans heavily on the running game — if they can. The Broncos are No. 7 against the run this season.
Sean Payton hasn’t been a heavy underdog a lot in his coaching career, but when he is, he’s money. His QB is gaining confidence each week and will be able to keep this one close.
Colts +5½ at Vikings
I’m picking against another team that can’t wait to get back on the field and erase a bad taste in its mouth — in this case, a modest two-game slide. This one could be a shootout since the Purple will have T.J. Hockenson in uniform for the first time, and the Colts defense doesn’t scare anyone. Remember the last time these teams met at U.S. Bank? Of course you do.
The Colts can keep this close and maybe spring the upset because Joe Flacco gives this offense a chance to rock. Jonathan Taylor won’t have to worry about LB Blake Cashman, who will miss another game, and that running attack will neutralize Brian Flores’ exotic blitz schemes. Not to mention that Flacco has seen everything and should be able to handle things, especially with an elite pass-blocking unit in front of him. Feels like a 31-27 kind of game to me.
Bucs +9½ at Chiefs
Thanks to this blog, I find myself rooting against the Chiefs quite often. That’s because Patrick Mahomes is not great ATS as a big favorite historically. Last week’s game is just the latest example.
This line just feels way too high. I understand the injuries to the Bucs’ WRs have zapped their explosiveness, but Baker and that offense can still move the ball, especially since they’ve had a couple of weeks to regroup. Look for Rachaad White to chew up yards as a receiver out of the backfield and for the Bucs defense to get some timely stops. There are some very talented players on that side of the ball. The Chiefs may jump out early here, but a back door cover is very much in play.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 9-15
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