I think I’m ready to announce that my 0-3 Week 1 performance was an anomaly. Riding a three-week winning streak with a 7-2 record, things are starting to come into focus. That said, this week’s slate is a little tricky, with a lot of close spreads.
Here are the three puppies I have my eye on:
Panthers +4 at Bears
The big trade these teams made a couple years ago sent them heading in opposite directions. But as it stands right now, it’s possible both teams may end up with QB remorse. Chicago is in the midst of three straight home games against the have-nots of the NFL and are feeling good about themselves after dispatching the Los Angeles Rams last weekend.
They look at the Carolina Panthers and see a team that just lost its leading tackler, Shaq Thompson, to a torn Achilles, and figures it should be able to run effectively, taking the burden off Caleb Williams. They finally got the running game going last week against the bumbling Rams defense, and the Panthers are no better.
Chicago’s defense deserves respect, but they’re facing a Panthers offense that looks completely revitalized with Andy Dalton under center. He’s developing chemistry with WRs Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette and RB Chuba Hubbard is coming off two straight 100-yard rushing days. Dalton won’t be overwhelmed by the defense and should keep his team competitive. Bears win, but by no more than a field goal.
Rams +3 ½ vs. Packers
Okay, this one hurts because I hate picking against the Pack and could see the Green Bay Packers rolling over the Rams in a series where they’ve won the last four (all at Lambeau) and nine of the last 10. The Rams are as banged up as any team in football, and their bottom-of-the-barrel defense should be no match for a less rusty Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and the Pack’s high-flying offense.
LA will rely on the legs of Kyren Williams, who should have his way with the Pack’s run defense, and Matthew Stafford will test Green Bay’s banged-up cornerback room, even if he’s still throwing to guys not named Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. There’s just something about this Packer team that’s a little off. They’re committing way too many penalties and self-inflicted errors, and at some point, the turnover battle will swing the other way. The Rams are also due to get better in that area.
At 1-3, the Rams are desperate for a win as they head to their bye week, and they showed in their comeback win over the San Francisco 49ers that they’ll fight for 60 minutes. I’d like to believe Green Bay is equipped to put its foot down on a battered team’s neck, but I’m not quite ready to trust the defense to keep its side of the bargain — not to mention the long list of penalties, drops and missed kicks so far this season. Pack escapes in a close one.
Saints +5 ½ at Chiefs
I’m not a guy who enjoys backing Dennis Allen and Derek Carr on the road, especially in the house Mahomes built on Monday Night Football. After all, the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 for the first time under Mahomes, and the New Orleans Saints have dropped two straight after that surprising 2-0 start.
The Chiefs offense is missing two key elements: Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice, and they weren’t exactly rolling when those guys were out there. They’ve been out of sync all season, and the Saints defense is pretty solid. I’m assuming Alvin Kamara is good to go; he’s been limited at practice this week, nursing hip and rib injuries. But jack of all trades Taysom Hill is likely out with fractured ribs, taking some of the unpredictability away from the offense.
I see this as a low-scoring game with yet another big dog keeping things close. KC moves to 5-0, but like in their other four wins — all by less than seven points — it won’t be pretty, and it won’t be easy.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 7-5
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